You can try to play down a trade war with China. You can brush off the impact of rising oil prices on corporate earnings. But if you’re in the business of making economic predictions, it has become ...

The recession warning triggered nearly two years ago by an inverted Treasury yield curve almost certainly amounts to a false signal. Several GDP nowcasts reflect a solid rate of growth in Q3. A ...

Most are aware that an inverted yield curve portends a market top and an impending recession. Few are aware, however, that the opposite - the movement from the inverted curve to a steep positive curve ...

Here’s a short presentation by Aswath Damodaran on the recent inverted yield curve and whether there is a signal in the noise. He writes: On December 4, 2018, the yield on a 5-year US treasury dropped ...